Thursday, August 19, 2010

Treasuries extend yesterday’s mixed performance

Good Morning,


Treasury prices had a mixed performance on Wednesday as the absence of Tier 1 economic data resulted in choppy trading of government debt giving investors little direction. By the end of the day the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose a mere 9 points to close at 10,415. Treasuries ended flat on the short end of the curve, with the 2 year note yielding 0.50%, meanwhile the 5-year declined only 1/32 to yield 1.44%. The benchmark 10-year note also remained flat for the day yielding 2.63% continuing to trade at its lowest levels since March 2009. The 30 year bond was the only maturity that registered a meaningful change rising 17/32 to yield 3.73%.

This morning, the price of Treasuries continue yesterday’s trend with short and intermediate maturities declining while the long bond continues to rise. As unemployment concerns continue to take center stage in the United States, this morning’s slightly worse than expected Initial Jobless Claims report should push demand for long Treasuries higher as they are more susceptive to economic worries. The 2-year note is trading flat yielding 0.49% while the 5-year note has dropped 1/32 yielding 1.44%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury is currently trading 3/32 lower to yield 2.64%. Meanwhile the long bond has gained 8/32 to yield 3.72%.

Additionally, the number of Continuing Claims dropped 13,000 to 4.478 million, beating analysts’ expectations for 4.500 million continuing claims. However, the less volatile 4-week average number of initial claims also disappointed showing an increase of 8,000 from the reported 474,500 for the previous week. In other economic releases for the day, the Leading Economic Indicators, an index of ten economic indicators designed to predict economic activity 6 to 9 months in the future, will be released at 9:00 am CDT. Analysts are forecasting the index to report a 0.10% change for the month of July. The Philadelphia Fed will also be releasing its index at 9:00 am CDT. Analysts are expecting another positive reading for the month of August at 7.00.
Finally, the Federal Reserve is expected to purchase another round of Treasuries focusing on slightly longer maturities from 2016 - 2020 in a continuous effort to boost the economy by keeping interest rates at bay.

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